I have the butterflies in my stomach already.
The Washington Redskins are headed to Irving to face the "almighty" Cowboys this week. If there is a team in the NFL that the media rides harder when they have some talent, please let me know. Even though they haven't won a playoff game since, what, 1995?
But, maybe it is justified this year. It's hard to argue that there is a better team on paper than the Dallas Cowboys. Their lines are solid, they have a quarterback in Romo that seems to have the "it" factor and makes plays downfield. They have a hard-nosed runner in Marion Barber, a future hall-of-fame receiver in Owens, a top 3 tight end in Witten, and talent at the corners. They were the class of the NFC during the regular season last year, and at 3-0, look to be back on the same track this season.
In the same light though, since the 2005 season, when the Redskins became a legitamite threat in the NFC East and put the losing tradition of the Turner and Spurrier eras behind them, they have given Dallas all that they could handle, and more.
It started with the Monday Night Miracle in September of 2005. We all remember it. After being dominated for 56 minutes, two long bombs from Brunell to Moss with less than four minutes to go gave the 'Skins a shocking 14-13 win.
Redskins-Cowboys since 2005: 1-0
Then, in December of 2005, we handled the Cowboys 35-7 on the back of Chris Cooley's three touchdowns.
Redskins-Cowboys since 2005: 2-0
In week two of 2006, The Redskins carried a 17-10 halftime defecit into the fourth quarter, where on the first play of the quarter Drew Bledsoe connected with Terry Glenn for a 40 yard touchdown, blowing the game open 24-10. A field goal later, the Cowboys would take home a 27-10 victory in Irving.
Redskins-Cowboys since 2005: 2-1
In week nine, the Redskins would pull of one of the craziest wins in the rivalry's history. With the game tied at 19, Nick Novak missed a long go-ahead field goal and gave Dallas the ball back with a short field. After driving down the field, a strike from Romo to Witten over the middle left Mike Vanderjact with a short field goal attempt for the win.
When the ball was snapped, 15-year vet Troy Vincent, who had just been signed, came through the line virtually untouched. He blocked the field goal, and the ball was eventually picked up by Sean Taylor (RIP). After returning it just past midfield, a facemask penalty was called, moving the 'Skins from outside of field goal range to leaving Novak with a 47 yard attempt. He squeaked it in, with about 6 inches to spare from the right upright, and gave the Redskins a 22-19 upset.
Redskins-Cowboys since 2005: 3-1
Moving on to week 11 in 2007. The Redskins played one of their best halves of the season in the first half of this game, and took a 10-7 lead into halftime. Then the Cowboys decided to exploit the void left by Sean Taylor, who was out with an injury, and take shots down the field. The result was three touchdowns of 30 yards or more from Romo to Owens in the second half.
Despite a 28-16 defecit late in the game, the Redskins would drive down the field and cut the lead to 28-23. Again with the ball, and about two minutes to go, Campbell would drive the Redskins into the redzone before throwing a game-ending interception.
Redskins-Cowboys since 2005: 3-2
In week 17 of 2007, the Cowboys came to FedEx with little to play for, and faced Washington team with everything to lose. Riding a 3-1 record since the death of Sean Taylor, and a 3-0 record on the back of backup quarterback Todd Collins, the Redskins dismantled the Cowboys 27-6, holding them to one yard rushing. The win put the Redskins into the playoffs for the second time in three years.
Even though the Cowboys sat most of their starters in the second half, the Redskins controlled the entire game, even when the Dallas starters were in. They looked to be on fire heading into the playoffs.
Redskins-Cowboys since 2005: 4-2
Looking at this, it's hard to believe that the Redskins are, for the most part, being completely written off by the media in the upcoming game. While it hasn't always been pretty, the Redskins have found a way to beat the Cowboys, or at least keep the games close, over the last three years. The one exception being a 27-10 loss where the Redskins were painfully moving out of the Mark Brunell era.
My keys to victory:
Offense:
1. Control the line of scrimmage. We need to establish the run and give Campbell protection so that he can get into a rhythm. With the West Coast offense being so dependent on timing, we need to give Campbell a chance to feel comfortable and find his recievers downfield. The Cowboys' defensive front seven is about on par with the Giants', and we struggled mightly in the trenches with them in week one. It is an area that needs to improve if we want to win this week.
2. Take some shots downfield. The Dallas defense is very solid, and if we don't keep them honest, they will shut down the run, short pass and screen game. We need to take at least half a dozen shots down the field to back them up and give Portis some room to run, and Campbell some room to cut them up underneath.
3. Control the clock. The Dallas offense is explosive, and they need to be off the field as long as possible. The Redskins should try and keep this game low-scoring by establishing the run and executing the short passing game of the West Coast Offense.
Matchup to exploit: TE Chris Cooley vs. MLB Zach Thomas. While Thomas was once one of the greatest middle linebackers in the game, he is getting up there in age. He is still a solid player, but not near the domninant force he once was. Cooley should be able to find space over the middle of the field when the Cowboys are in zone coverage, and abuse him if he gets lined up one-on-one.
Defense:
1. Pressure from the front four. Without Jason Taylor, this task is going to fall on the shoulders of Andre Carter, Chris Wilson, Demetric Evans, and Erasumus James. The Cowboys offensive line is one of the biggest and strongest in the league, so our defensive line has their work cut out for them. If we are able to get sufficient pressure from the front four, our secondary and linebackers will be able to roam and make plays. While Romo has proven to be a threat at quarterback, he has also shown that when he is pressured, he is very prone to make mistakes and throw interceptions. He already has three interceptions through three games this season.
2. Take away the big play. Last season we got killed by Terrell Owens on three big touchdown plays. They all happened in the second half when the Redskins had switched to primarily a zone defense. In the first half, Shawn Spings did a great job staying with Owens man to man, and has even called him out before this game. If we take away the big play, and keep this game low-scoring, the Redskins will have a better chance to win.
Matchup to exploit: LG Cory Procter vs. Redskins' interior.
Proctor is coming in for the injured Kyle Kosier. While he may be a decent backup option, this is a matchup that a starter should be drooling over. I expect big plays from the interior line on his side in run defense and for Blache to target Proctor with interior blitzes on passing downs.
The Bottom Line:
This is going to be a very difficult game for Washington. We are 1-11 in the last 12 games in Dallas. The Cowboys are a very talented team that would love to push themselves further into first place in the NFC East with a win over their arch rivals at home.
I see the line, which has Dallas favored by 11, as a little high. The games between these two teams are always hard fought and usually very close.
In the end though, I think the Cowboys will come away with a win. I think their offense is just a little bit too much for the Redskins defense at this point, and they win a close game that is a little more high-scoring than the 'Skins needed it to be.
Although the Redskins may walk away with the loss, the country will take notice at how hard they played and how they were able to keep pace with the class of the NFC on the road.
Final score: Cowboys 27, Redskins 20.