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Thursday, October 9, 2008

Are we ready to believe?

I think it's fair to say that, with the exception of blind homers, the 2008 Washington Redskins have exceeded every one's expectations to this point.

When the preseason was over and I felt that I could look at the Skins' schedule and give the best assessment of it, I saw these first five games as a proving ground. All three road games against our NFC East foes, and two home games against a pair of good offenses.

And to be honest, I didn't see them coming out of it with a winning record. After the Skins' performances in their last two preseason games, where they were dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage, I was really worried. Anyone that knows anything about football will tell you that the most important battle to win in this game is the battle in the trenches (see: 2007 Super Bowl champion Giants).

I had doubts about our aging offensive line and our pass rush to begin with, and the last two preseason games were proving my worst nightmares to be true. This was a team that was going to get dominated on the lines, giving our playmakers no chances to make plays.

After the week one loss to the Giants, it appeared we were on that track. I witnessed it first hand, travelling from North Carolina to New York, only to watch my beloved Skins get handled. The defending Super Bowl champs pushed the Skins around all night, allowing only seven points and dominating the clock.

The offense looked completely inept. The defense improved as the game went on, but were dominated on the ground. The head coach looked like he was about to be on the hot seat.

What a difference a month can make.

The Redskins team that sits at 4-1 today is not the team that was dominated in week one. Let's take a look at a few impressive numbers.

  • The Redskins have played the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks. Their opponents are a combined 15-9. Excluding the games against the Redskins, these teams are 14-5. Despite having the toughest schedule in the league, and three division road games in the toughest division in the NFL, the Redskins are 4-1.

  • All five of the Redskins opponents thus far have a top ten offense. Before the Eagles game, all five our opponents had a top six offense. So, how has the Redskins defense and first-year coordinator Greg Blache responded to facing off against the NFL's offensive elite? They have held each opponent below their average in total yardage and points and, in most cases, to their lowest total of the season in both of those categories.

  • New York - Held to their lowest yardage (354 vs. Skins, 431 Avg.) and point total (16 vs. Skins, 31.8 Avg.) of the season

  • New Orleans - Held to their lowest yardage (250 vs. Skins, 406.4 Avg.) and point total (24 vs. Skins, 27.6 Avg.) of the season.

  • Arizona - Held to their second lowest yardage (313 vs. Skins, 376.8 Avg.) and lowest point total (17 vs. Skins, 29.4 Avg.) of the season.

  • Dallas - Held to their lowest yardage (344 vs. Skins, 407.4 Avg.) and lowest point total (24 vs. Skins, 30.2 Avg.) of the season.

  • Philadelphia - Held to their lowest yardage (254 vs. Skins, 342.6 Avg.) and second lowest point total (17 vs. Skins, 25.4 Avg.) of the season.

Offensively, the Redskins have succeeded in controlling the football and winning the fourth quarter battle.

  • The Redskins are the only team in the NFL without an offensive turnover. Their only turnover of the season was on a fumbled punt return by Antwaan Randle-El

  • The Redskins have outscored their opponents 34-10 in the fourth quarter this season, with three fourth quarter shutouts. They have only been outscored once in the fourth quarter (7-6 against Dallas).

  • In the Redskins' four victories, they have won the time of possession battle by an average of just over ten minutes per game. (140:13 to 99:47, ~35:00 to 25:00)

  • The Redskins rushing offense has been dominant. They are ranked fifth in the NFL, and Clinton Portis is the NFL's second leading rusher, a mere 29 yards behind NFL leader Michael Turner. Coming into the game against the Redskins, the Eagles rush defense was ranked first in the league with under 60 yards allowed per game. The Redskins came in to Philly and put up over 200 yards rushing on them.

With three should-win games against the Rams, Browns and Lions coming up, it is within reason to think this team should be 7-1 at the halfway mark. Head Coach Jim Zorn and Defensive Coordinator Greg Blache have created a formula for success. The offense eats clock, has big play capability and doesn't turn the ball over. The defense, while still lacking a dominant pass rush, plays great in coverage and stuffs the run. And to date, they have done it against great competition.

As a fan growing up after the glory years of the Redskins, when Joe Gibbs was leading them to Super Bowls, I have become used to the mediocrity of the Norv, Marty, and Spurrier years. Even the Gibbs II playoff teams didn't feel like true contenders. They felt like what they were: a team that squeaked into a wildcard spot. Even now, with a team that has proven to be a force in the NFL, I have had trouble accepting how good they really are. I kept thinking that it was too good to be true. That it will eventually fall apart.

But not now. What this team has done over the first five weeks, the toughest part of their schedule, has made me ready to believe that this team is the real deal. That they should be there in the end, competing for the NFC title, and maybe even the Super Bowl.

Hail.